Volume: 14  Number: 4  Page: 349–366  doi:10.2167/jost549.0

Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic Index

Bas Amelunga and David Vinerb aInternational Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, The Netherlands and bClimatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

This paper examines future climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean region using the Tourism Climatic Index. Currently, an estimated 100 million tourists visit the Mediterranean region annually, largely because of its favourable climate. Experiments with climate change scenarios suggest likely changes, with the Mediterranean becoming too hot in summer, with northern Europe having a more attractive climate, and with the Mediterranean becoming a more pleasant destination in spring and autumn. These spatial and temporal changes in climatic attractiveness could have major impacts on the sustainability of tourism development. Preliminary results for the case study of the Balearic Islands suggest that changes are likely to be detrimental from an economic and social point of view, and neutral or favourable from a resource management and biodiversity perspective.

Keywords: climate change, tourism, climatic index, Mediterranean, scenario analysis, seasonality

© 2006 B. Amelung & D. Viner

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